tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20351584936612472592011-04-21T14:04:57.313-07:00Mr. Nonghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00338763258281464396noreply@blogger.comBlogger11100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2035158493661247259.post-5417881610729464112009-05-22T01:03:00.000-07:002009-05-26T02:52:50.684-07:00Bangkok Metro (BMCL) - ACCUMULATE<br /><br><br />Price (Bt) 0.78<br />Target (Bt) 0.89<br />Set Index 548.77<br /><br><br />1Q09 result improves<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_oCeObKKgz7Y/Shu7xDXIwAI/AAAAAAAAALs/Az98X7Pfulc/s1600-h/stock-market.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 240px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_oCeObKKgz7Y/Shu7xDXIwAI/AAAAAAAAALs/Az98X7Pfulc/s320/stock-market.jpg" border="0" alt="cheapest online stock trading company"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5340068234568187906" /></a><br />1Q09 results improve from ridership and fair box increases <br /> BMCL announced a 1Q09 net loss of -Bt342mn, a moderate improvement over last year’s loss of -<br />Bt359mn, due to passenger revenue increasing 7% yoy to Bt359mn from ridership growth of 2.5% yoy to 175,823 <br />pax and an average fair box growth of 6.5% yoy to Bt22.72 per head. Commercial revenues dropped 12.7% yoy <br />to Bt41mn due to lower advertising revenues.<br /><br><br />More positive view from green line extension and airport link<br /> We have a more positive outlook on passenger growth. In the first quarter, traffic was not hit by <br />the economic slowdown. Moreover, the Green line extension (Taksin – Wongwean Yai) opened on May 15, 2009 <br />and the Airport Rail Link is expected to open on August 12, 2009. These additions will feed more passengers <br />onto the blue line. We see 2009 average passenger per day growth of 5% yoy and the average fare box growth <br />to reach 3% yoy. Therefore, we forecast the BMCL 2009 result will be a net loss of -Bt1,348mn <br />(Bt0.11/share). We also now expect the company to reach the profit point in 2013. <br /><br><br />Upgrade to ACCUMULATE with fair value of Bt0.89<br /> We have revised up our fair value to Bt0.89 a share based on our DCF method with a discount rate <br />of 10% and a 21-year cash flow period (2009-2029) without a terminal value. The current share price offers <br />a 14% upside to our target price. Therefore, we are recommending an ACCUMULATE on BMCL.<br /><br><br />Earnings summary<br />Year End Dec 31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F<br />Sales (Btmn) 1,375 1,424 1,575 1,659 1,843<br />EBITDA (Btmn) -434 -296 -234 -143 32<br />Normalised earnings (Btmn) -1,687 -1,475 -1,459 -1,348 -1,249<br />Earnings (Btmn) -1,669 -1,475 -1,459 -1,348 -1,249<br />EPS (Bt) -0.14 -0.12 -0.12 -0.11 -0.1<br />EV/EBITDA (x) -45 -70.4 -93 -159.1 748.5<br />Free cash flow (Btmn) -1,054 -272 234 -415 -53<br />CF/share (Bt) -0.06 -0.02 0.02 -0.02 0<br />BVPS (Bt) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2<br />P/BV (x) 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.2<br />Net debt/equity (X) 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 5<br />ROA (%) -8% -7% -8% -7% -7%<br />ROE (%) -24% -19% -24% -28% -36%<br />Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates. <br /><br /> By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 22, 2009<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_oCeObKKgz7Y/ShZet7Qah8I/AAAAAAAAAA8/hPBMB4doGLQ/s1600-h/cheapest+online+stock+trading.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 214px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_oCeObKKgz7Y/ShZet7Qah8I/AAAAAAAAAA8/hPBMB4doGLQ/s320/cheapest+online+stock+trading.jpg" border="0" alt="cheapest online stock trading company"id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5338558551387965378" /></a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Major USA Cities</span><br /><br />Indianapolis Indiana,Nashville-Davidson Tennessee,Hialeah Florida,North Hempstead New York,Denver Colorado,Cleveland Ohio,St. Petersburg Florida,Anaheim California,Columbus Ohio,Fort Wayne Indiana,Glendale Arizona,Las Vegas Nevada,Colorado Springs Colorado,Arlington Texas,Buffalo New York,Miami Florida,Aurora Colorado,Corpus Christi Texas,Oakland California,El Paso Texas,Memphis Tennessee,San Diego,Baton Rouge Louisiana,Plano Texas,Laredo Texas,Stockton California,Dallas Texas,Birmingham Alabama,Lexington-Fayette Kentucky,Norfolk Virginia,St. Paul Minnesota,Cincinnati Ohio,Riverside California,Washington District of Columbia,Sacramento California,Virginia Beach Virginia,Chicago Illinois,Seattle Washington,Philadelphia Pennsylvania,Jacksonville Florida,Anchorage Alaska,Mesa Arizona,Wichita Kansas,Chula Vista California,Boston Massachusetts,San Jose California,Madison Wisconsin,Portland Oregon,Kansas City Missouri,Akron Ohio,Jersey City New Jersey,Los Angeles California,Rochester New York,Babylon New York,Greensboro North Carolina,Phoenix Arizona,Detroit Michigan,Fort Worth Texas,New York New york,Garland Texas,Santa Ana California,Brookhaven New York,Chesapeake Virginia,Islip New York,Baltimore Maryland,Newark New Jersey,Bakersfield California,Chandler Arizona,New Orleans Louisiana,Omaha Nebraska,Houston Texas,Hempstead New York,Toledo Ohio,St. Louis Missouri,Tulsa Oklahoma,Pittsburgh Pennsylvania,Tucson Arizona,Orlando Florida,Scottsdale Arizona,Lincoln Nebraska,Austin Texas,Durham North Carolina,Oyster Bay New York,Reno Nevada,San Antonio Texas,Raleigh North Carolina,Atlanta Georgia,Fresno California,Milwaukee Wisconsin,Albuquerque New Mexico,Henderson Nevada,Lubbock Texas,Modesto California,Charlotte North Carolina,Minneapolis Minnesota,San Francisco California,Long Beach California,Honolulu Hawaii,Oklahoma City Oklahoma,Tampa Florida<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/2035158493661247259-541788161072946411?l=cheapest-online-stock-trading-company.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>Mr. Nonghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00338763258281464396noreply@blogger.com0