Price (Bt) 0.78
Target (Bt) 0.89
Set Index 548.77
1Q09 result improves
1Q09 results improve from ridership and fair box increases
BMCL announced a 1Q09 net loss of -Bt342mn, a moderate improvement over last year’s loss of -
Bt359mn, due to passenger revenue increasing 7% yoy to Bt359mn from ridership growth of 2.5% yoy to 175,823
pax and an average fair box growth of 6.5% yoy to Bt22.72 per head. Commercial revenues dropped 12.7% yoy
to Bt41mn due to lower advertising revenues.
More positive view from green line extension and airport link
We have a more positive outlook on passenger growth. In the first quarter, traffic was not hit by
the economic slowdown. Moreover, the Green line extension (Taksin – Wongwean Yai) opened on May 15, 2009
and the Airport Rail Link is expected to open on August 12, 2009. These additions will feed more passengers
onto the blue line. We see 2009 average passenger per day growth of 5% yoy and the average fare box growth
to reach 3% yoy. Therefore, we forecast the BMCL 2009 result will be a net loss of -Bt1,348mn
(Bt0.11/share). We also now expect the company to reach the profit point in 2013.
Upgrade to ACCUMULATE with fair value of Bt0.89
We have revised up our fair value to Bt0.89 a share based on our DCF method with a discount rate
of 10% and a 21-year cash flow period (2009-2029) without a terminal value. The current share price offers
a 14% upside to our target price. Therefore, we are recommending an ACCUMULATE on BMCL.
Earnings summary
Year End Dec 31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
Sales (Btmn) 1,375 1,424 1,575 1,659 1,843
EBITDA (Btmn) -434 -296 -234 -143 32
Normalised earnings (Btmn) -1,687 -1,475 -1,459 -1,348 -1,249
Earnings (Btmn) -1,669 -1,475 -1,459 -1,348 -1,249
EPS (Bt) -0.14 -0.12 -0.12 -0.11 -0.1
EV/EBITDA (x) -45 -70.4 -93 -159.1 748.5
Free cash flow (Btmn) -1,054 -272 234 -415 -53
CF/share (Bt) -0.06 -0.02 0.02 -0.02 0
BVPS (Bt) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2
P/BV (x) 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.3 3.2
Net debt/equity (X) 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.2 5
ROA (%) -8% -7% -8% -7% -7%
ROE (%) -24% -19% -24% -28% -36%
Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.
By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 22, 2009
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